Consultant Climate Change Analyst

Job Description

The recent droughts in Morocco, increasing in frequency over the last few decades (Sekkat, 2004), have led to volatile economic growth rates in the country. In Souss Messa, Om er Rabia and other key basins, the drought is now into its third year and reservoir levels are low. By the end of the 2015- 2016 season, figures published by the United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Advisory Service (USDA FAS), showed that crop production was down to 1.86 m tonnes of common wheat, roughly 870, 000 tonnes of durum wheat and 620, 000 tonnes of barley all together, totaling less than one third of the output of the 2014/2015 season.

Previous studies have on climate change continued warming trend for Morocco. Given the importance of Morocco within the MENA region and beyond it is understandable that there have been some studies of future climates. For example, a recent World Bank report highlighted, from IPCC data, annual precipitation is projected to decline by 10- 40 percent, including a 10- 30 percent decrease during the wet season, from October to April, and a 10 to 40 percent decrease during the dry season, from May to September. It also highlighted that for every decade since 1970, there has been 0.5 degrees rise in annual temperature, and additional temperature increases of as much as three to seven degrees Centigrade are projected for Morocco by 2100. The largest increases (four to seven degrees) are anticipated for the summer months (June, July, and August). Whilst this work is important and brings insight, the scale of the analysis is coarse. From conversation with decision- makers in key agencies and ministries such as the Ministry of Agriculture, Marine Fisheries, Rural Development and Forests, Ministry of Equipment, Transport, Logistics and Water, Agence du Basin Hydraulique, OMVRA, , and it is not supporting the decision- makers within the key river basins or nationally in their planning of infrastructure, investments and water use management going forward.

The work proposed under the DFID/World Bank funded project, will bring enhanced insight to decision- makers in Morocco through new finer scale resolution data that is integrated with water and agricultural system data. The various map and other data outputs will be co- designed with those that will be using the data in water planning and management to ensure they bring the information and insight needed to support new investments and policies/action plans. The focus will be on understanding future drought conditions as these are particularly challenging to water and food security management.

Objective of the Assignment

The consultancy will produce new national- level climate change data and maps at high resolution for Morocco using a mixed ensemble model approach, to indicate areas likely to be affected by changes in temperature, precipitation and solar radiation. The analysis will also generate new national map data for critical climate change such as consecutive dry days , % change in consecutive dry days , wet days , % change in day with rainfall more than x mm , consecutive summer days with key values such as critical rainfall amounts or summer temperatures defined with the Moroccan national partners.

These maps and graphs will highlight both the changes and the locations likely to be most affected and are critical for adaptation planning particularly for managing drought.

Scope of Work

Download data from Cordex for Morocco: Historical data, RCP 4.5, RCP 8.5 and send short summary to supervisor Complete bias corrections for the data relative to available meteorological observations and share results with supervisor Produce a series of maps, tables, and graphed outputs summarizing the likely climate change against indicator requests Contribute technical summary and graphical outputs for final report Your application must include a copy of your curriculum vitae, including details of previous experience, together with a cover letter and contact information of three professional referees who may be contacted, if you are shortlisted.

Please note that only short- listed candidates will be contacted.

Requirements Knowledge of GIS, Data analysis, R Studio and Erdas IMAGINE A Bachelors degree in a related discipline Experience in statistical analysis Excellent report writing skills

Keyskills :
change managementdocumentation sladelivery networkingdata analysis erdas imaginefood security